Gavin Newsom's close-call recall (#20)
California's governor could be out of a job soon and he might get replaced by a more polished version of Trump.
As the top dog of the Golden State — the country’s most populous state per 2020 Census results — Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is a very busy man. And right now, he is very busy trying to keep his job as he faces a recall election on Sept. 14. It’s a big deal since Newsom’s ousting could potentially give California a Republican governor for the first time in more than two decades AND provide said governor the opportunity to appoint a GOP senator to replace the aging Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the style of late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who’s passing under President Trump paved the way for the appointment of conservative Justice Amy Coney Barrett.
But first, you might be wondering: what the heck is a recall election?? Well, it’s in the name. It’s an election in which residents cast their votes to remove an elected public official from office before the end of their term and select their replacement. California is one of 19 states plus D.C. that allows voters to remove statewide officials through a recall vote (Newsom’s current term is set to expire next year).
The rules to trigger a recall vary by state, but in California, voters must submit a petition with signatures totaling 12% of the number of votes in the last election for the seat which… seems like a pretty low threshold to recall a public official that was elected fairly through a general election. In any case, that meant Republican activists driving the campaign to recall Newsom needed 1,495,709 valid signatures for their petition — they managed to collect 1.7 million (to give you some perspective, there are about 22 million registered voters in the entire state). In July, it was official: California’s chief executive would face a recall vote this year.
Newsom isn’t the first governor to get hit by a recall vote, but the list of those who have is extremely short. According to the Eagleton Center on the American Governor, an initiative of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University, only four governors in U.S. history have been subject to a recall election. The first was North Dakota Gov. Lynn Frazier (R) who was recalled by state voters in 1921. The second was another California governor — remember Hollywood terminator-turned-governor Arnold Schwarzenegger (R)? Well, in case you forgot, he was elected as the replacement for ex-Gov. Gray Davis (D), who was voted out of office in a 2003 recall.
[That’s right, the star of ‘Total Recall’ became governor through a recall! My wonderful partner who is a Schwarzenegger movie fan insisted that I include that pun, I’m sorry.]
The third governor in history to face a recall — and the only governor to survive one — is former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) who managed to keep his job following a 2012 recall election that was triggered by his support for anti-union legislation (from what I’ve read, that legislation known as Act 10 was such a watershed moment that it caused a cascade of protests, recalls, and political divisions that persist in the state today). Now, Newsom’s supporters are hoping he can pull a Walker in the upcoming recall election, by leaning heavily into party politics and branding the campaign for his removal as a plot by Republicans to take California.
But it might not be that simple. While Newsom is still pretty popular — despite kind of looking like a villain from HBO’s Succession whenever he smiles a certain way — his approval ratings have teetered during the pandemic. It didn’t help that he had a COVID-related scandal in which he was photographed hanging out maskless with a bunch of lobbyists at a ritzy San Francisco restaurant, after he enforced mask mandates and lockdowns. Not great!
Then, there’s the issue of voter turnout. In off-cycle elections, meaning elections that don’t happen in the same year as presidential elections, voter turnout has historically been much lower than in local elections that occur in presidential election years. Local elections as a whole typically only draw out the most civically engaged voters. As Maanvi Singh wrote for the Guardian, a lack of interest in California’s recall election among Democratic voters due to the disproportionate impact the pandemic’s had on Latinos and Black voters — and, I think, perhaps election fatigue from last year’s intense presidential contest — could spell relatively stronger turnout by Republicans and non-party voters, and a loss for Newsom. Right now, the margin between voters who support the recall and those who don’t is only a few points, and if Vice President Kamala Harris’s involvement in Newsom’s GOTV campaign is any indicator, I’d say Democrats are definitely sweating it.
California’s recall ballot will have two questions. The first will ask whether Newsom should be recalled as the state’s governor. If 50% of voters say no, then he’s safe. But if they vote yes, he’s out. Next, the ballot’s second question will ask: if you think Newsom should be fired, who should replace him?
As it stands, there are 46 (!!!) people running to replace the governor on the recall ballot. The unfortunate news is Newsom’s rivals don’t even have to secure a majority of votes — they only need to have the highest tally among all the replacement candidates, even if that is well below 50%, to win the seat. The crowded field of contenders is mostly Republicans though there are several Democrats. In the mix are some seasoned politicians like ex-San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and Newsom’s old rival from 2018, businessman John Cox. This being Amurrica, there are also celebrities such as reality star Caitlyn Jenner, most famous for being an Olympian and the trans parent of Kendall and Kylie of the Kardashians, and finance YouTuber Kevin Paffrath, who has 1.7 million subscribers on his channel.
However, polls show Newsom’s strongest rival is a guy named Larry Elder, a Black libertarian and right-wing radio host who loves Trumpian policies and apparently mentored anti-immigration gargoyle Stephen Miller. Last month’s polls show Elder ahead of his Republican rivals by double digits. Some digging shows why: he’s a polished and more quick-witted version of Trump, which makes him a legitimate threat for his competitors despite coming out of left field (as I was wrapping up this newsletter, an interview with Elder on CNN came out in which he questioned COVID-19 vaccinations for school kids and rejected the facts of racial profiling in policing).
Right now, there’s a huge drive to get blue-voting Californians to show up in the recall election. Groups representing communities of color, like the African American Voter Registration, the Chinese Progressive Association Action Fund, and Voto Latino are planning GOTV campaigns all the way through Sept. 14. Californians who prefer voting early have already begun casting their votes; roughly 17% or 3.5 million mail-in ballots have been returned, with Democratic ballots making up the majority so far. It’s a good sign for Newsom but with two weeks left until election day, it’s too early to tell. And as we know from close-call elections in the past, no outcome is guaranteed.
⭐🗳️ Are you a California voter who wants to learn more about how to vote in the state’s very important recall election? Check out this handy voter guide from nonprofit journalism initiative Cal Matters! 🗳️⭐
*Matt Damon Boston accent* HOW YA LIKE THEM CANDIDATES?
Some exciting news for Boston: voters are going to elect a new mayor this year and, given the makeup of the candidate pool, that person will most likely be a person of color — all the top mayoral candidates are people of color, with four of them women! However, the crowded and diverse field candidates is also making it difficult for voters to decide who to elect for Boston’s top job.
The situation mirrors what happened during the primary elections for New York City’s mayoral race in which voters were overwhelmed by a big, diverse pool of candidates. Moreover, in NYC, having multiple candidates running on progressive/left-leaning platforms ended up splitting the progressive vote and giving the more conservative frontrunner a pathway to victory — a scenario that could play out in Boston’s mayoral race.
When I first moved to Boston for grad school in 2015, I was struck at seeing so many women of color sitting on the City Council of a predominantly white and highly segregated town (if you’ve ever lived in Boston… you know). Over the last decade, Boston’s City Council has indeed become more diverse with smart, trailblazing women of color leading its changing face. Namely through the election of council members like Michelle Wu, Andrea Campbell, and Ayanna Pressley, who you probably know best as Congresswoman Pressley of “the Squad” — she is the first Black woman to represent Massachusetts in the U.S. Congress, and was the first Black person and the first WOC elected to Boston’s City Council in 2009. Ten years later, Boston’s City Council had a woman- and minority-majority for the first time in history.
Now, a bit of background on Boston’s mayoral race: right before Joe Biden became POTUS, Marty Walsh had been the city’s mayor for seven years. Walsh is your typical heavy Boston-accented, Irish white working-class friendly politico that is a fixture in Massachusetts politics. He eventually got a nice promotion when President Biden plucked him to be the country’s new Labor Secretary. The empty mayoral seat was then filled by Kim Janey who, as president of the City Council, automatically succeeded Walsh as acting mayor per the city charter. Janey’s ascension was a big effing deal — she is the first Black person to fill the seat as Boston’s mayor. She holds the spot temporarily until this November, when voters will elect their mayor in a general election. Janey has thrown her hat in the ring as a candidate in the race, hoping to fill the seat for the long term.
But the situation has become slightly complicated — also running for mayor are Janey’s former City Council colleagues: Wu, who is Asian American and a City Council veteran; Campbell, another Black woman city council member; and Annissa Essaibi George, who came from immigrant parents and is half-Tunisian. Another top contender is John Barros, the city’s top economic official and the son of Cape Verdean immigrants. Tensions around voting coalitions have largely come from Janey’s, Wu’s, Campbell’s, and Essaibi George’s candidacies. The first three are all capable WOC running on left-leaning platforms, making it hard for progressives to decide on one candidate.
As Politico reports, that was reflected by the Jamaica Plain Progressives, a political group representing one of the city’s neighborhoods, which failed to reach a consensus among members to determine a candidate endorsement. Essaibi George, meanwhile, is the centrist out of the bunch and some observers are worried that divisions among progressives over which candidate to rally behind could split the left, giving the moderate Essaibi George an opening to win the preliminary. Some have also argued the electoral power of the city’s Black voters could get split among the Black candidates, though Wu and Essaibi George have gained support from Black voters, too.
[note: there has been some unfortunate discourse around Essaibi George’s race/ethnicity, but she has publicly stated that she identifies as a woman of color and/or Arab-Polish.]
Of course, Boston and NYC are very different cities (though new census data shows the former is becoming more populated and less white, like the latter). And unlike NYC, which used a ranked-choice voting system citywide for the first time during the mayoral primaries, Boston’s preliminary election will be sticking to the traditional voting system. Still, you can see similar machinations unfolding in both mayoral races.
As I wrote before, what’s happening in Boston is reminiscent of what New Yorkers saw during primary season, which featured an overcrowded pool of candidates — EIGHT frontrunners and 15 candidates total on the ballot!! — that was also highly diverse. There were multiple candidates running on progressive platforms, each lagging behind more centrist contenders. Maya Wiley belatedly emerged as the most viable progressive candidate, but divisions on the left, a crowded field, and the unpredictability of ranked-choice voting, I think, really paved the way for Eric Adams, a Black ex-NYPD captain and a former Republican, to win the Democratic nomination. Since NYC’s solid blue, Adams is pretty much expected to be the next mayor of New York City.
In Boston, the most recent public poll shows Wu (24%) leading the pack with Janey polling third (16%) behind Essaibi George (18%), but we know that polls aren’t catch-all predictions for elections. The fractured left-wing vote could end up giving the moderate Essaibi George a better chance at advancing among voters. With the current situation in Boston’s mayoral race, Boston could very well see a similar scenario to what happened in NYC — a diverse pool with multiple progressive candidates ending in the victory of a moderate candidate of color.
Do you think Boston’s mayoral race could follow a similar trajectory as New York City’s? Is the “rivalry” between the cities for real or is it something Bostonians just made up in their heads? Sound off in the comments section at the end of the post or reply to this email!
TWEET OF THE WEEK
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WHAT TO WATCH/READ/LISTEN TO
🔥 Did you know, like, 90% of firearms used by drug traffickers in Mexico come from the States? Ridiculous, right? The Mexican government thinks so and that’s why they’re suing U.S. gun manufacturers. Listen to the story here. | The Daily/NYT
🔥 The South Korean army’s new cellphone policy has resulted in some unintended consequences, for better or worse. | Rest of World
🔥 Fairy godfather/renowned Chef José Andrés is back in Haiti, working with local chefs and staff to prep hot meals for thousands of Haitians reeling from a cascade of natural disasters. | Miami Herald
🔥 Following a deadly attack on the Kabul airport, a U.S. military drone strike targeting a suspected suicide bomber in a residential neighborhood ended up killing an Afghan family. A story on the human toll of their deaths. | Los Angeles Times
🔥 Louisiana hospitals, already pushed to the limit due to COVID-19 patients, are bracing for a barrage of new patients following Hurricane Ida. Watch the report. | NBC News
🔥 Remember when actress Cynthia Nixon ran for governor against Andrew Cuomo in 2018? Nixon may have lost but, unlike Cuomo, she’s still got her Emmy. And she’s reprising her famous role in the Sex and the City reboot. | Vanity Fair/Harper’s Bazaar
🔥 A study in Bangladesh helped triple the rate of mask-wearing among the public. Could it help do the same for the U.S.? (Probably not.) | NPR
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Stay kewl,
Natasha